SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Storms with marginally severe wind gusts will be possible late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning across parts of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. ...Eastern North Carolina/Southeast Virginia... A mid-level low will move into the Tennessee Valley today, as a jet streak in the base of the system translates through the Gulf Coast states. Diffluent mid-level flow associated with the exit region of the jet will overspread the southern Atlantic Coastal states Wednesday evening. The core of the jet will move eastward across the Carolinas Wednesday night. In response, a low will develop over southern North Carolina after midnight, moving northeastward into eastern North Carolina by early Thursday morning. Low-level convergence near the surface low and large-scale ascent along the eastern edge of the mid-level jet streak will provide support for isolated thunderstorm development. In addition to the strong flow aloft, a jet max near 850 mb will translate eastward across eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia late in the period. Thunderstorms that develop in proximity to the low-level jet could mix the stronger winds to the surface, resulting in an isolated wind-damage threat. ..Broyles/Wendt.. 10/29/2025
