SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL NC INTO PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated damaging-wind potential may occur Thursday from coastal North Carolina into parts of the Mid Atlantic. ...Coastal NC into parts of the Mid Atlantic... A Marginal Risk has been added for parts of coastal NC into the Mid Atlantic, mainly for a continuation of a threat that may develop late D1/Wednesday and continue into at least the first part of the day on Thursday. A mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered over the Ohio Valley will move northeastward on Thursday, reaching parts of the Lower Great Lakes by the end of the forecast period. An associated surface low is forecast to deepen as it moves northeastward from parts of VA/MD toward southern New England. A trailing cold front will sweep through the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic, and eventually move into parts of western New England by Friday morning. Convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning from coastal NC into parts of the Mid Atlantic. There will be some potential early in the period for near-surface-based convection within a favorably sheared environment across coastal NC and far southeast VA, which could be accompanied by strong/locally damaging gusts. A relatively narrow warm sector (characterized by low 60s F dewpoints) will spread northeastward through the day across parts of the Mid Atlantic, in advance of the cold front. Muted diurnal heating and weak lapse rates will tend to limit surface-based destabilization, though relatively strong low-level flow could support some potential for convectively augmented gusts with any deeper convection within the warm sector. There could also be some potential for modest storm organization near the surface low across parts of southern/central PA and vicinity if sufficient destabilization occurs, but guidance varies considerably regarding the extent of heating and low-level moisture return in this area. ..Dean.. 10/29/2025
