SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe storms could occur late tonight and early Thursday across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes required. Latest surface observations across the NC Tidewater region show winds becoming more easterly with dewpoints rising as moisture is slowly advected inland. This trend should continue through tonight and help promote buoyancy late tonight/early Thursday morning as the surface cyclone (currently over eastern TN) shifts northeast. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025/ ...Eastern NC/VA Tidewater region tonight... No changes to the previous outlook. A deep midlevel trough and associated 100+ kt midlevel jet will progress from the MS Valley this morning to the TN Valley this evening and the southern Appalachians overnight. Surface cyclogenesis in association with this trough will help draw the (currently offshore) moist sector inland across eastern NC and the VA Tidewater region by tonight. Surface temperatures will warm to near 70 F and dewpoints increase into the mid-upper 60s, which will be sufficient for weak buoyancy rooted near the surface. Hodograph length/curvature will favor some potential for rotating storms, with a low-end wind damage and/or tornado threat.
