Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... Organized severe-thunderstorm potential generally appears low through the extended range, with dry and stable conditions expected to prevail across most of the CONUS into at least early next week. On D4/Saturday, a mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the central/southern Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. Some modest low-level moisture return will be possible across parts of south TX and the TX Gulf Coast during the day, in advance of a reinforcing cold front. The GFS remains the most aggressive regarding prefrontal destabilization, with other deterministic and ensemble guidance depicting weaker instability, and a tendency for any storm development to be primarily anafrontal. For D5/Sunday and beyond, predictability decreases with time regarding whether the mid/upper-level trough will remain progressive as it moves across the Southeast, or if a deep mid/upper-level cyclone will develop and move only slowly eastward. Most guidance depicts limited inland moisture return and destabilization, though the more amplified solutions could support some threat for locally strong storms across mainly coastal regions of the Southeast into early next week.
