SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor across parts of the central and northern Great Plains late Saturday afternoon into the nighttime hours. Some risk for severe wind and hail will accompany this activity. ...Central High Plains to Northwest MN... A shortwave upper trough over the Great Basin will lift northeast to the northern Plains on Saturday. A belt of moderate southwesterly mid/upper flow will overspread the central Rockies to the Upper Midwest as this occurs. At the surface, troughing is forecast across the High Plains, with an elongated area of low pressure stretching from SD into northern MN during much of the period. The surface low will deepen over the northern Plains late in the period as the upper shortwave trough ejects northeast. Modest boundary layer moisture (mid 50s to low 60s F) will be in place to the east of the surface trough across the central Plains, and ahead of a surface cold front extending from the SD surface low into eastern ND/northern MN. Capping will likely preclude diurnal convection across the warm sector. However, cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates may support thunderstorm development across the higher terrain of CO/WY by mid/late afternoon. These storms may then become better organized as they move into NE/SD by evening as they interact with the surface cold front within a modestly unstable airmass. Convection will likely remain elevated/just to the cool side of the surface front and maintain a linear mode given deep shear parallel to the surface boundary. Isolated strong to severe storms may produce strong gusts with this activity as convection develops east/northeast along the surface boundary during the evening/overnight. If any elevated convection can maintain a cellular mode, isolated hail also could occur. ..Leitman.. 10/03/2025
