SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Fri Oct 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the central Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will remain stationary across the Plains states, as a pronounced mid-level impulse over the Upper MS Valley ejects into Ontario, and broader upper troughing remains in place over the central U.S. Modest low-level moisture will continue to advect north-northwestward as lee troughing persist over the central and southern Plains. By late afternoon, subtle lifting along the cold front, along with peak diurnal heating, should support scattered thunderstorm development over the central Plains. Adequate buoyancy and shear will be in place to support an isolated severe threat. ...Central Plains... The stationary surface cold front will be positioned along a line roughly from central NE to the western TX Panhandle somewhere in the 18-00Z time frame. By afternoon peak heating, surface temperatures will exceed 80 F amid upper 50s to perhaps 60 F dewpoints, yielding between 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Given somewhat warm temperatures aloft and meager moisture return, thunderstorm development will be dependent on surface heating and any subtle convergence along the cold front. Nonetheless, the latest 12Z 3-km NAM, ECMWF, and GFS runs all depict convective initiation along the cold front from south-central NE to the OK/TX Panhandles by Sunday evening. By this time, a southeasterly LLJ will be in place, beneath 700-500 mb flow that quickly veers to west-southwesterly, which will support enlarged, curved hodographs. Despite poor buoyancy and weak forcing for ascent, a few multicells or even a transient supercell or two may develop, capable of an instance or two of marginally severe hail/wind or a brief tornado. ..Squitieri.. 10/03/2025
