SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the central Plains on Sunday. ...Plains to the Upper Midwest... A series of upper shortwave troughs will move across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Sunday. The first shortwave trough will lift northeast from ND/MN into Ontario early in the day. Lingering showers and thunderstorms beneath the core of this feature are possible across parts of eastern ND into northern MN during the morning hours. During the afternoon/evening, a second upper shortwave trough will develop southeast from the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains. This will support a belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow from the central High Plains into the Upper Midwest. This belt of stronger flow will overlap a surface cold front developing southeast across the central Plains and Upper MS Valley during the late afternoon into the overnight hours. Modestly southerly low-level flow will maintain mid 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints ahead of the surface front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will foster modest destabilization, with MLCAPE generally in the 500-1000 J/kg range, particularly across parts of KS into eastern NE, weakening with northeast extent. Midlevel temperatures will be warm, resulting in capping until late afternoon/evening when forcing along the front will increase. Isolated storms are expected to develop across parts of KS into eastern NE toward 00z. Supercell wind profiles will be present with 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes indicated in forecast soundings. However, deep shear parallel to the front may result in convection becoming undercut/moving to the cool side of the boundary with time. Nevertheless, a narrow corridor for isolated strong to severe storms is expected to develop for a few hours during the evening, mainly across KS into southeast NE. A few strong gusts and some hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Limited instability and a relatively narrow temporal/spatial corridor for severe potential precludes higher probabilities. The Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) is maintained, but shifted some to better align with current forecast position of the surface front. ..Leitman.. 10/04/2025
