SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the central Plains late this afternoon and evening. ...Central Plains... Notable short-wave trough, currently located over eastern WY/CO, will eject into the upper Red River Valley by the start of the day1 period, then advance into northwest ON by early evening. This evolution will result in weak height rises across much of the Rockies into the central High Plains, though seasonally strong southwesterly 500mb flow will extend across KS at peak heating. In the wake of the ejecting short wave, surface pressures will rise across the northern/central High Plains which will force a sharp cold front into southeast NE-central/southwestern KS by 06/00z. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating across the southern High Plains into southwest KS, immediately ahead of the wind shift. Forecast soundings exhibit steep low-level lapse rates (>9 C/km in the 0-3km layer) and convective temperatures should be breached by 22-23z. Isolated thunderstorms should evolve along the boundary, and frontal lift may also contribute to some elevated convection by late evening/overnight hours. While instability is not expected to be that significant, strong deep-layer shear and an increasing LLJ during the evening favor some organizational potential along the frontal zone. Hail/wind are the primary concerns. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/05/2025
