Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CDT Mon Oct 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper ridging will persist over the Plains through at least Day 5/Fri, while upper troughing develops over the East. Surface high pressure and a cold front offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts will preclude severe thunderstorm potential due to a mainly dry and stable airmass east of the Rockies. By Day 6/Sat and beyond, most medium-range guidance depicts a more progressive upper pattern, with one or more upper troughs developing across the West and into the Plains. As this occurs, surface lee troughing and cyclogenesis over the northern Plains late in the period should allow for some meager Gulf return flow/increasing moisture. However, severe potential still appears low given any more appreciable moisture return likely will still be offset from stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent focused over the central/northern Plains.
