SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Thu Oct 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe storms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for robust organized thunderstorms today; although, several areas of concentrated convection are expected. Upper ridge is forecast to continue across the southern High Plains through the day1 period as a strong low holds off the Oregon Coast. Modest southwesterly flow will encourage higher PW air mass across the southwestern U.S. into the Four Corners region where modest boundary-layer heating will contribute to adequate destabilization for lighting within deeper convective updrafts. Scattered thunderstorms are also expected across south FL in association with a low-latitude midlevel trough that will drift slowly north through the period. High-PW air mass and poor lapse rates appear supportive of potentially heavy rain, rather than severe storms, within broader easterly low-level flow. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop within northwesterly high-level diffluent flow ahead of a digging trough. Weak instability should develop ahead of a surface front, and elevated convection appears possible during the latter half of the period from the upper Great Lakes into eastern Kansas. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 10/09/2025
