SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Fri Sep 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Thundertorms capable of hail and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible for another hour or two this evening across parts of central and southeast Arizona. ...Central and Southeast Arizona... On water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over far southeast California. A dry slot is evident over southwest Arizona, with a plume of mid-level moisture extending over the remainder of the state. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing within this plume from near the mid-level low southeastward into central and southeastern Arizona. This activity is located along the northeastward edge of a southeast-to-northwest corridor of instability, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, the Tuscon 00Z sounding has 0-6 km shear near 35 knots, with a 0-3 km lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. This should be enough for isolated severe gusts with the strongest of cells over the next hour or two. Hail will also be possible. Instability will continue to weaken, with the overall severe threat diminishing by mid evening. ..Broyles.. 09/27/2025
