SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong, to locally severe thunderstorms are expected across the southern half of New Mexico and far West Texas. Win gusts and hail are the primary concern. ...NM/Far West TX... Lower CO River Valley upper low is forecast to gradually weaken and lift northeast toward the Four Corners region by the end of the period. This evolution will encourage a bit stronger midlevel flow to translate across northern Mexico into southern NM later today, coincident with modest-strong boundary layer heating/destabilization. While midlevel height falls will prove negligible to weakly rising, the approaching upper trough is expected to aid a corridor of scattered robust convection across northern Mexico-far west TX-southern/central NM. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached fairly early, possibly by 20z. At that time profiles exhibit modest-strong 0-6km bulk shear, with some veering with height. Scattered thunderstorms should easily develop by mid afternoon and the large-scale environment favors some updraft organization. Primary concerns will be gusty winds and hail. Nocturnal cooling, along with convective overturning, should result in weaker updrafts by mid evening. ..Darrow/Moore.. 09/28/2025
