SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0707 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are expected from central New Mexico into far West Texas today. ...NM/West TX... An upper low over western AZ will continue to track slowly eastward today, with southwesterly mid/upper-level flow in place over much of the southwest states. A combination of pockets of favorable daytime heating and surface dewpoints in the lower 50s will yield 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and the development of scattered thunderstorms by mid afternoon. This activity will spread across the MRGL risk area through mid/late afternoon, posing a low-end risk of gusty/damaging winds and hail. ..Hart/Grams.. 09/28/2025
