SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are expected from central New Mexico into Far West Texas today. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains generally on track with only minor adjustments to account for ongoing activity. For additional information, see the previous forecast below as well as MD 2135. ..Wendt.. 09/28/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT Sun Sep 28 2025/ ...NM/Far West TX... Slow-moving upper low is forecast to continue progressing northeastward across the Southwest today, moving from its current position over the Lower CO River Valley/southwest AZ to the Four Corners by early Monday. Moderate southwesterly mid/upper level flow will persist throughout the eastern periphery of this system, spreading from eastern AZ/western NM into the southern High Plains. Moderate buoyancy is expected to develop this afternoon from central NM into Far West TX, where modest low-level moisture is anticipated beneath cool mid-level temperatures. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the region this afternoon as lift associated with the upper low spreads eastward. Combination of shear and buoyancy should be adequate for a few stronger storms, particularly within the narrow corridor from ELP (El Paso, TX) northward/northeastward to ONM (Socorro, NM). Overall profile favors hail as the primary severe risk, although a few stronger downbursts are possible as well.
