SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a branch of westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific into North America may trend more amplified during this period. It appears that this will include a mid-level trough digging inland in some fashion across California on the leading edge of this regime, but there is notable spread still evident in the output concerning this feature. Downstream, broad mid-level ridging is likely to encompass the remainder of the U.S., to the north of a subtropical regime including a building ridge along an axis from the northern Mexican Plateau through the central Great Plains, and weak downstream troughing digging a bit further southwestward through the Gulf Basin. Beneath this regime, a slowly weakening surface ridge, becoming centered off the north Atlantic coast, may encompass a broad area from the Gulf coast and southern Great Plains through the northwestern Atlantic. Models suggest that moist easterly low-level flow, to the north of an offshore surface front, may become unstable enough to support a risk for scattered thunderstorm activity across the Florida Peninsula, northern Gulf Basin and perhaps adjacent northern Gulf coast. Additional scattered thunderstorm development is possible Thursday into Thursday night, along a frontal zone downstream of the inland digging trough, across parts of the Great Basin, and within a lingering low-level warm advection regime across the northern Great Plains Red River vicinity through northern Minnesota. However, guidance continues to suggest negligible risk for severe weather. ..Kerr.. 09/30/2025
