MD 2192 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TX
Mesoscale Discussion 2192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024
Areas affected...portions of southern oklahoma and northern TX
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 031949Z - 032045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms moving into/developing in a strongly sheared air
mass over parts of OK/TX may pose an increasing risk of tornadoes. A
new Tornado Watch is likely needed.
DISCUSSION...A robust cluster of storms is organizing west of a
strongly sheared and destabilizing air mass across parts of southern
OK and western North TX. While predominately linear, these storms
are moving into a modified warm frontal zone with strong low-level
effective helicity (0-1 km >350 ms2/s2 from the TLX VAD) sufficient
for tornadoes. Diffuse heating and subtle confluence are also
apparent ahead of the QLCS across western north TX. Hi-res guidance
and observational trends suggests additional, more discrete, storms
may develop/mature this afternoon. With moderate buoyancy and
large-low level hodograph curvature, supercells and QLCS
mesovorticies with the potential for tornadoes could materialize. A
Tornado watch is likely.
..Lyons/Hart.. 11/03/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 35229824 35549777 35699693 35779631 35569547 35409513
34709487 34569494 34189520 33679616 33539672 33499722
33739773 34249832 35229824
