MD 0119 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0119
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0928 PM CST Sat Feb 10 2024
Areas affected…Parts of south-central MS
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 110328Z – 110530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated damaging wind and/or a brief tornado cannot be
ruled out as a convective line moves eastward late this evening.
DISCUSSION…Modest intensification of a convective cluster and
embedded line segment has been noted over the last hour, to the west
of Jackson, MS. Despite warm late evening conditions and dewpoints
in the low 60s F, weak lapse rates are limiting instability across
the region, with MLCAPE likely less than 300 J/kg along/downstream
of the line. However, recent lightning activity suggests that
convection has deepened somewhat across southwest MS. With strong
low-level shear/SRH (0-1 km SRH greater than 300 m2/s2) noted on the
KDGX VWP, organized convective elements may develop and persist
within this cluster as it moves eastward through late evening, with
a threat for locally damaging gusts and possibly a brief tornado.
..Dean/Hart.. 02/11/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…JAN…
LAT…LON 32699027 33058931 32908883 32288896 31938927 31828975
31859028 31879076 32079071 32699027
