MD 0122 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 15…16… FOR CENTRAL INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Areas affected…central into northeastern Texas
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15…16…
Valid 110920Z – 111115Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15, 16
continues.
SUMMARY…A cluster of thunderstorms will overspread the Interstates
35 and 45 into 20 corridors of central into northeastern Texas
through 5-7 AM CST, with a few embedded stronger storms posing a
risk for severe hail.
DISCUSSION…As the primary mid-level jet streak (including 70-90 kt
around 500 mb) continues to propagate across the Texas Big Bend into
the Edwards Plateau through 11-13Z, relatively warm and/or warming
lower/mid-tropospheric air appears likely to be maintained above
potentially unstable boundary layer air now present across the lower
Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal plain. Stronger forcing for
ascent and associated convective development probably will remain
focused well to the north of the quasi-stationary to slow moving
warm frontal zone, now roughly near/north of San Antonio through the
College Station and Huntsville vicinities.
To the north of the frontal zone, forecast soundings suggest that
the cool near-surface layer remains stable with regard to potential
for strong downdrafts to reach the surface. Furthermore, lower
tropospheric wind fields preceding the convective cluster are rather
modest in strength, and there is little indication of strong
lower/mid-tropospheric rear-inflow developing, despite the organized
character of the elevated convection. So the potential for strong
convective wind gusts appears likely to remain low through at least
11-13Z. But elevated instability and favorable cloud-bearing layer
shear may continue to support locally strong embedded supercell
structures posing a risk for severe hail as convection spreads
across the I-35/45 into I-20 corridors of central through
northeastern Texas.
..Kerr.. 02/11/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…SHV…FWD…EWX…SJT…
LAT…LON 32319767 32999536 32169483 31279628 30309824 30309949
30879910 31439826 32319767
