MD 0123 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 16… FOR PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0123
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Areas affected…parts of eastern Texas into southwestern Arkansas
and northwestern Louisiana
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 16…
Valid 111240Z – 111515Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 16
continues.
SUMMARY…Isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development may
continue through 9-11 AM CST, with hail remaining the primary
potential severe hazard.
DISCUSSION…An initial area of stronger large-scale ascent appears
to be pivoting north of the Red River Valley. However, one
persistent strong cell/small cluster of convective development
continues to be supported by a focused area of enhanced
lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection now spreading across the
Tyler, TX toward Shreveport, LA vicinities. Based on latest model
output, it remains unclear how much longer this will be maintained,
but sustained weakening trends have yet to develop, and it is on
track to reach the Shreveport vicinity by 15Z.
Otherwise, into the 15-17Z time frame, weaker low-level warm
advection appears likely to persist within a corridor north of the
upper Texas coastal plain through the Shreveport vicinity, beneath
at least weakly difluent high-level low. This may support
continuing convective development, with the stronger thunderstorm
development perhaps shifting closer to the surface frontal zone,
near the Huntsville vicinity.
..Kerr.. 02/11/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LZK…SHV…HGX…FWD…
LAT…LON 32069587 32609543 33099443 33429288 32619231 32119346
30709551 30469650 30829711 31349651 32069587
