MD 0126 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LA…FAR SOUTHEAST AR…AND CENTRAL MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0126
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1025 AM CST Sun Feb 11 2024
Areas affected…Portions of northeast LA…far southeast AR…and
central MS
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 111625Z – 111800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…The persistence of elevated supercells capable of
producing large hail remains uncertain into Mississippi. Downstream
watch issuance is possible, but will remain dependent on convective
trends.
DISCUSSION…An elevated supercell across northern LA produced
numerous reports of large hail around 1.5 – 2.5 inches in diameter
as it moved across Shreveport LA earlier this morning. This activity
has since weakened slightly and become more linear, as it may be
outpacing the better mid-level lapse rates plume and greater MUCAPE
available across east TX into central LA. Still, ample deep-layer
shear of 50-60 kt will support continued updraft organization with
any convection that can strengthen and persist along/north of a
surface front draped across central LA/MS. So long as these
thunderstorms remain clearly elevated, large hail would remain the
primary severe risk. Given that MUCAPE is only slowly increasing
along/north of the boundary into central MS, it remains unclear
whether the threat for large hail will become sufficient enough to
justify Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance with elevated supercells.
Greater tornado potential is expected to remain along/south of the
front, and will be addressed in a separate Mesoscale Discussion
later.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 02/11/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…JAN…
LAT…LON 33199195 33379140 33619066 33708946 33568853 32978867
32499005 32249113 32349185 32849192 33199195
