MD 0158 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN MISSOURI ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0158
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Areas affected…eastern Missouri across southern Illinois and
toward the lower Ohio Valley
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 270600Z – 270800Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Storms may eventually form within a west-east oriented
zone as midlevel convection moves out of Missouri and toward the
lower Ohio Valley. Marginal hail or gusty winds may occur later
tonight.
DISCUSSION…Satellite and radar trends indicate gradually
increasing midlevel convection over central MO, near the midlevel
temperature gradient. Though no lightning has been observed, models
do support increasing trends as the activity possibly interacts with
increasing low-level moisture across the MS/OH Valleys.
If the area of convection can increase in size and intensity, gusty
winds and/or marginal hail could develop, as lapse rates are very
steep aloft, and deep-layer shear is strong. In general, the
activity is expected to remain elevated, barring any eventual cold
pool from aggregating showers or storms. As such, limited severe
potential exists in the near term, but trends will be monitored
tonight.
..Jewell/Edwards.. 02/27/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…PAH…LSX…SGF…
LAT…LON 37589094 37679122 37939178 38139187 38349177 38509152
38479067 38458902 38288771 38018725 37748709 37358718
37158742 37198806 37338904 37589094
