MD 0192 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0192
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CST Tue Mar 05 2024
Areas affected…portions of the central/southern Florida Peninsula
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 052112Z – 052245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…5 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated thunderstorms are expected over the next 1-2
hours. The strongest storms may produce locally gusty winds and
small hail.
DISCUSSION…Modest destabilization has occurred across the
central/southern FL Peninsula this afternoon amid strong heating and
mid/upper 60s F surface dewpoints. Effective shear magnitudes around
30-40 kt will support some storm organization. However, modest
midlevel lapse rates, along with generally weak instability and
light winds through 3 km, will likely limit longevity of any
stronger updrafts. Forecast soundings do indicated elongated
hodographs above 3 km, so any updraft that can be sustained could
potential produce small hail given cooler temperatures aloft.
Otherwise, locally gusty winds may accompany these storms as well.
Given the overall marginal nature of the environment and expected
isolated storm coverage, a watch is not expected.
..Leitman.. 03/05/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MFL…MLB…TBW…
LAT…LON 27358277 27808255 27978187 27828131 27438082 26698044
25898035 25348043 25238063 25328105 25778149 26268201
26868252 27358277
