MD 0193 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0193
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0747 PM CST Tue Mar 05 2024
Areas affected…Portions of the western Florida Peninsula
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 060147Z – 060345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated damaging gusts and possibly a brief/weak tornado
could accompany an approaching mesoscale convective system from the
west in the next hour or so. A watch is not currently expected.
DISCUSSION…A loosely organized quasi-linear convective system is
tracking eastward at around 30-35 kt across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico, and is approximately 35-40 miles west of Tampa Bay FL. While
the latest IR satellite trends suggest a gradual weakening of this
system as it encounters cooler sea-surface temperatures and weaker
buoyancy offshore of the western FL Peninsula, around 40 kt of
midlevel westerly flow perpendicular to the established cold pool
should support some maintenance as it approaches the coast.
Regardless, antecedent heating/destabilization of a relatively moist
airmass (upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints) over the peninsula could
support locally damaging gusts as it moves ashore in the next hour
or so, though the onset of nocturnal cooling could offset this to an
extent. In addition, small clockwise-curved hodographs could support
a brief/weak tornado along the immediate coastal areas, though the
stronger low-level flow/shear is largely displaced to the north,
where earlier convection/cloud coverage limited destabilization.
Current thinking is that the overall severe-threat will remain too
localized/marginal for a watch consideration.
..Weinman/Guyer.. 03/06/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…MFL…MLB…TBW…JAX…
LAT…LON 25938194 26848250 27678287 28198289 28898276 29008255
29008227 28968203 28778190 28088181 27228164 26448135
25988126 25798153 25938194
