MD 0202 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 31… FOR SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 0202
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0903 PM CST Thu Mar 07 2024
Areas affected…Southern High Plains
Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31…
Valid 080303Z – 080400Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 31
continues.
SUMMARY…Scattered convection will linger across mainly the
northern/central portions of ww31 this evening.
DISCUSSION…Surface front is gradually advancing south across the
southern High Plains this evening but convection has not developed
along this boundary to any degree across northwest OK. Most robust
convection has gradually weakened, partially due to weaker buoyancy
due to onset of nocturnal cooling. Additionally, 1km AGL flow has
gradually veered and this is not particularly advantageous given the
decreasing instability. 00z sounding from OKC exhibited steep lapse
rates, but PW values are seasonally low around 3/4″. With
boundary-layer decoupling it may become increasingly difficult to
maintain organized severe updrafts. While an isolated hail report
can not be ruled out, overall trends suggest severe threat will
remain marginal from this point forward.
..Darrow.. 03/08/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…FWD…OUN…SJT…LUB…MAF…
LAT…LON 31070142 36979900 36989700 31079956 31070142
