MD 2121 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617… FOR CENTRAL PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 2121 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025 Areas affected...Central Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617... Valid 230407Z - 230600Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to expand in areal coverage over the central Plains. Hail/wind threat continues. DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale support appears to be correlated with an arcing band of convection from southwest KS-eastern OK/TX Panhandles. The northern most portion of this line may actually be associated with a weak midlevel vort. 1km flow is gradually increasing across western OK into south central KS, with 25-35kt now common. Current thinking is thunderstorms will gradually expand in areal coverage along the leading edge of the LLJ, immediately ahead of the aforementioned midlevel vort, within the zone of strongest low-level warm advection. Some hail is likely with the strongest updrafts, but gusty winds may also be noted along the leading edge of the arcing band of convection, possibly extending a bit south of the watch across northwestern OK. An MCS may ultimately evolve over southern KS/northern OK which should propagate east into the early-morning hours. ..Darrow.. 09/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...AMA... LAT...LON 36530130 38830200 38839792 36539734 36530130 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
