MD 2122 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 617… FOR SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 2122
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0108 AM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Areas affected...southern KS and northern OK
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617...
Valid 230608Z - 230745Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 617
continues.
SUMMARY...Primary corridor of severe wind potential appears to be
centered on the northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas border area
through the pre-dawn hours. Significant severe wind gusts of 75-90
mph and a brief tornado are possible. An additional watch may be
needed east of WW 617.
DISCUSSION...Continued IR cloud-top cooling has been noted during
the past couple hours with an organizing convective complex in
northwest OK to southwest KS, centered on the US-281 corridor. With
peak MLCAPE in vicinity of this line and a 45-kt south-southwesterly
low-level jet to its south, per FDR/TLX VWP data, severe gusts may
become sustained within an expanding west-to-east swath along the
OK/KS border. Evening CAM guidance suggest the most intense wind
potential will be over the next few hours through about 09Z, with
some weakening later towards northeast OK/southeast KS as MLCAPE
decreases/MLCIN increases. With a recently evolving seahorse-type
shape to the reflectivity in the ongoing maturation phase, embedded
mesovortices will be capable of producing a brief tornado and/or
significant severe gusts of 75-90 mph.
..Grams/Gleason.. 09/23/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 37639890 37909796 38009663 37899551 37509505 37209491
36949494 36779509 36459554 36319710 36329857 37639890
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
