MD 2157 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN OK INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 2157
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0913 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024
Areas affected…Western OK into parts of central/eastern KS
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch unlikely
Valid 220213Z – 220345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…20 percent
SUMMARY…Isolated strong to locally severe storms may persist
through late evening.
DISCUSSION…There has been some recent increase in storm
coverage/intensity from western OK into central KS this evening,
possibly in response to strengthening low-level warm advection (as
inferred from the KVNX and KICT VWPs) to the south/east of a
mid/upper-level cyclone near the NE/KS border. The window for
surface-based development is likely limited due to increasing MLCINH
with time and eastward extent, though a narrow zone of MUCAPE near
or above 1000 J/kg could support a few stronger elevated storms
through the late evening, in the presence of favorable deep-layer
shear. Isolated hail and gusty winds will be possible with the
strongest storms.
..Dean/Guyer.. 10/22/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TOP…ICT…OUN…DDC…
LAT…LON 34829978 35019980 35329969 35949938 38149811 39689772
39769671 39119662 37659697 36889728 35859829 35039905
34659960 34829978
