MD 0219 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0354 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024
Areas affected…portions of north-central and northeast kansas and
western Missouri
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 132054Z – 132300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Scattered thunderstorm development is expected late this
afternoon along a warm-frontal corridor across northern KS and
western MO. Supercells capable of hazards are likely. A WW will
likely be needed late this afternoon or early this evening.
DISCUSSION…As of 2045 UTC, regional satellite showed a steadily
deepening cumulus field along a sharpening warm-frontal zone across
parts of northern KS and western MO. Towering cumulus was also noted
along a trailing dryline into parts of southeastern KS. Water-vapor
imagery shows large-scale ascent from a passing shortwave-trough
will move overhead late this afternoon and continue through the
evening. With strong low-level moisture advection ongoing, the air
mass along and south of the front should continue to destabilize as
ascent and diurnal heating work to remove inhibition. Surface
dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F should support 1500-2000
J/kg of MLCAPE with 40-50 kt of effective shear. Storm organization
into supercells appears likely.
Experimental WOFS and other Hi-res guidance suggest storm
development may be delayed until more robust ascent (currently
depicted over eastern CO/western KS) arrives late this afternoon
into the early evening hours. With 500 mb temperatures of -20 to -22
C and low/mid-level lapse rates of 8 C/km, severe hail (some 2+
inches) and damaging gusts appear likely with the strongest storms.
Initially the tornado threat is more uncertain given the relatively
modest boundary-layer moisture and storm motions potentially
crossing the front. However, backed surface winds and relatively
large forecast ESRH of 200-400 m2/s2 along the warm front may
support a risk for a couple tornadoes with the more organized
supercells. The tornado threat should increase into the evening as
dewpoint spreads decrease and hodographs enlarge coincident with
enhancement of the nocturnal low-level jet.
Given the increasingly favorable environment for severe storms, a
weather watch will be needed sometime this afternoon. Exact timing
may be somewhat uncertain, but current projections suggest storm
initiation is possible by 22-23z.
..Lyons/Guyer.. 03/13/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LSX…SGF…EAX…OAX…TOP…ICT…GID…
LAT…LON 38049610 38499728 38729809 38889839 39319849 39769806
40149717 40209671 40239591 40209526 40059456 39719332
39129257 38799264 38319322 38059511 38049610
