MD 0234 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 42… FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0234
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CDT Thu Mar 14 2024
Areas affected…Portions of far north-central TX into
central/eastern OK
Concerning…Tornado Watch 42…
Valid 141850Z – 142015Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 42 continues.
SUMMARY…Very large hail up to 2-3 inches in diameter,
severe/damaging winds, and a couple tornadoes will remain possible
with intense thunderstorms this afternoon.
DISCUSSION…Multiple supercells and bowing line segments are
ongoing early this afternoon across south-central into eastern OK.
With strong instability and deep-shear remaining in place across
this area per latest mesoanalysis, any supercell that can remain at
least semi-discrete will be capable of producing very large hail,
potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. Some clustering has also
recently occurred across east-central OK, and severe/damaging winds
of 55-70 mph may become an increasing concern with filtered daytime
heating and gradual steepening of low-level lapse rates. Recent VWPs
from KINX/KSRX indicate that the low-level flow has veered and
weakened slightly compared to a couple of hours ago, as a modestly
enhanced low-level jet becomes focused farther north across the mid
MS and OH Valleys. Still, there may be sufficient 0-1 km SRH to
support occasional updraft rotation, and some threat for a couple
tornadoes through the rest of the afternoon. The potential for
robust convective development across far north-central TX remains
uncertain, as upper ridging and a low-level cap may continue to
inhibit thunderstorms over the next couple of hours across this
area.
..Gleason.. 03/14/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TSA…FWD…OUN…
LAT…LON 33989778 34959671 35649599 36289573 36689533 36779481
36529466 35939457 35329454 34549509 33999570 33549660
33519804 33989778
