MD 0338 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST-CENTRAL MO…SOUTHERN IL…SOUTHWEST IN AND NORTHWEST KY
Mesoscale Discussion 0338
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024
Areas affected…east-central MO…southern IL…southwest IN and
northwest KY
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch likely
Valid 020616Z – 020745Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…Severe thunderstorms, with an accompanying risk of
damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes will persist overnight across
southern Illinois into southwest Indiana and adjacent northwest
Kentucky. A watch will likely be needed in the next hour.
DISCUSSION…A robust bowing segment moving into east-central
Missouri is expected to persist through the overnight hours as it
shifts east along a warm front. Mesoanalysis indicates little
low-level inhibition across the region. Surface dewpoints in the mid
60s are contributing to modest instability (500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE).
Despite this modest instability, low-level shear ahead of the bowing
segment has increased considerable tonight. Regional VWP data
indicates enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs. Given
a more linear storm mode, damaging gusts will likely be the main
risk with bowing segments overnight. However, given the strong
vertical shear and veering with height low-level wind profiles, a
couple of tornadoes associated with mesovortex formation will also
be possible. A watch will likely be needed within the hour.
..Leitman/Smith.. 04/02/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LMK…IND…PAH…ILX…LSX…SGF…
LAT…LON 38039143 38259109 38568984 39128734 39058699 38508665
37968677 37688695 37458769 37398991 37439090 37599128
37749148 38039143
