MD 0345 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IL…EXTREME NORTHERN KY…AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IN
Mesoscale Discussion 0345
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024
Areas affected…Portions of far eastern IL…extreme northern
KY…and southern/central IN
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 021558Z – 021830Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…40 percent
SUMMARY…A gradually increasing severe hail threat should exist
with slowly intensifying thunderstorms across southern Indiana and
vicinity. The damaging wind and tornado threat remain less clear,
but some risk may eventually develop this afternoon. Trends will be
monitored for possible watch issuance.
DISCUSSION…Convection has been gradually increasing in coverage
over the past hour or so across southern IN and vicinity. This
activity is largely tied to pronounced ascent associated with a very
strong southwesterly mid/upper-level jet. Most of these
thunderstorms are currently elevated, and located to the north of an
outflow boundary related to earlier morning convection now in WV.
Still, visible satellite and surface observation trends show
attempts at low-level moisture returning northward ahead of these
thunderstorms and filtered daytime heating across parts of
southern/central IN. While MUCAPE remains weak at the moment,
instability and deep-layer shear are both forecast to increase
through the afternoon as a northern and southern-stream shortwave
trough phase over the Midwest. This should support a threat for
supercells capable of producing mainly severe hail initially. The
risk for damaging winds and tornadoes this afternoon will be
dependent on whether sufficient low-level moistening/warming will
occur to support truly surface-based convection. Regardless of this
continued uncertainty with instability, the gradually increasing
severe threat over the next few hours may eventually prompt watch
issuance.
..Gleason/Thompson.. 04/02/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…ILN…LMK…IND…PAH…ILX…
LAT…LON 37778803 37938850 38648844 39058804 39398743 40148624
40118503 39268486 38738537 37928666 37798721 37778803
