MD 0348 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0348
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024
Areas affected…Eastern Kentucky
Concerning…Severe potential…Tornado Watch likely
Valid 021658Z – 021900Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…80 percent
SUMMARY…All severe hazards are possible this afternoon near an
outflow boundary in eastern Kentucky. A tornado watch is likely this
afternoon, though timing is uncertain.
DISCUSSION…Outflow from this mornings convection along the Ohio
River has sagged into east-central Kentucky and has appeared to have
stalled. With continued heating, MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg is
possible by this afternoon. This outflow boundary should provide a
focus for additional storm development this afternoon in addition to
convection in central Kentucky moving eastward. Convection that can
organize and interact with the outflow boundary, most likely to its
south, will pose a risk for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging
winds. Regional VAD winds show low-level hodograph curvature. This
should improve with time as the 850 mb winds increase as the upper
low deepens. Winds are more backed (i.e. better low-level shear) to
the north of the outflow boundary, but destabilization is less
certain or at least will take more time to occur. A tornado watch
will likely be needed this afternoon, though the exact timing is not
clear.
..Wendt/Thompson.. 04/02/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…JKL…
LAT…LON 36638418 36788477 37138467 37378432 37588399 38098385
38268377 38218348 37708253 37388253 36768355 36638418
