MD 0417 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 103… FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0417
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024
Areas affected…parts of the Florida Panhandle
Concerning…Tornado Watch 103…
Valid 102335Z – 110130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 103 continues.
SUMMARY…The risk for severe weather has become increasingly
negligible, at least in the near term, but could increase once again
later this evening across at least coastal portions of the Florida
Panhandle around Apalachicola. While the remainder of Tornado Watch
103 may be allowed to expire at 9 PM EDT, trends will need to
continue to be monitored for the possibility of a new severe weather
watch later this evening.
DISCUSSION…The initially strong and better organized cluster of
storms has undergone considerable further weakening as it continues
to progress through an environment characterized by stable
near-surface lapse rates and less unstable low-level inflow across
and inland of northeastern Gulf coastal areas. Outflow, trailing
the forward propagating portion of the remnant convective system now
progressing into the Apalachicola vicinity, has advanced 60-70 miles
offshore of the western Florida Panhandle, but appears to have
stalled in advance of a significant mid-level short wave still west
of the lower Mississippi Valley.
Renewed thunderstorm development is ongoing along and southwest of
the stalling portion of the outflow, aided by forcing associated
with strengthening low-level warm advection beneath increasingly
difluent upper flow. It appears that this may increasingly acquire
low-level inflow of moderately unstable air over the next few hours,
with potential for further upscale growth and the evolution of
another organizing convective convective cluster along the outflow
boundary through mid/late evening. While the bulk of the strongest
storms may remain offshore, it is possible that the risk for severe
storms could increase again across coastal areas around Apalachicola
later this evening.
..Kerr.. 04/10/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…TAE…MOB…
LAT…LON 30448747 30648657 30558558 29918513 29558590 29648715
29908786 30448747
