SPC MD 456

SPC MD 456


Mesoscale Discussion 0456
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Areas affected…Eastern KS…southeast NE…southwest IA…far
western MO

Concerning…Tornado Watch 114…115…

Valid 161100Z – 161300Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 114, 115 continues.

SUMMARY…Isolated severe storms will remain possible through
mid-morning within WWs 114-115, with the greatest tornado threat
over east-central KS. Very isolated severe may also spread east of
the watches into parts of southwest IA and far western MO.

DISCUSSION…Over eastern KS, the only well-developed supercell that
earlier produced a tornado in Greenwood County, KS appeared to have
weaken for a period before restrengthening again as other cells
around it diminished. Given the history of this supercell, another
tornadogenesis cycle appears to be underway over east-central KS
given the mid 60s surface dew points and relative lack of
potentially destructive interference amid 0-1 km shear of 40-45 kts.
How long this process can last is uncertain given somewhat less
favorable thermodynamics downstream over the MO River. But should a
long-track supercell persist, it is plausible that a small
additional watch may be needed.

Across NE, the overall severe threat has become more nebulous after
the decay of the severe-producing QLCS over north-central
KS/south-central NE earlier this morning. Remnant deep convection is
still ongoing across parts of eastern NE with renewed development
just southeast of the 990-mb surface cyclone in south-central NE.
Instability within much of this portion of the warm sector appears
to be subsiding, especially with pervasive convection across eastern
KS. Still, isolated severe wind gusts, a brief tornado, and
marginally severe hail will remain possible for a few more hours.

..Grams/Gleason.. 04/16/2024

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 41699681 41879545 40739481 39229458 38299448 37819538
37539639 37819683 38229699 39279699 40949739 41699681

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