MD 0560 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR A PART OF EAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0560
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0946 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Areas affected…a part of east TX
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 281446Z – 281615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Short-line segment moving east-northeast into a part of
east Texas may intensify as the downstream air mass slowly
destabilizes into the afternoon. A couple brief tornadoes and
locally damaging winds are possible.
DISCUSSION…Remnants of the largely decaying early morning MCS have
maintained a short-line segment within the TX Triangle. KGRK radar
has detected transient mesovortices along its leading edge, which is
overlapping with the western periphery of the stronger low-level
shear environment across east TX per HGX/CRP VWP data. While surface
wind gusts have been sub-severe thus far, primary threat will be
potential for a couple brief tornadoes as the line segment shifts
towards the I-45 corridor. Downstream air mass is slowly
destabilizing amid pervasive cloud cover, but this process could
support gradual intensification into the afternoon. 12Z CAM guidance
differs in how extensive/intense this convection will be prior to
later in the afternoon.
..Grams/Hart.. 04/28/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…LCH…SHV…HGX…FWD…EWX…
LAT…LON 31359689 31809605 31929545 31779492 31559444 31159436
30979436 30689441 30529468 30389522 30199623 30229685
30279694 30279694 30839683 30839683 31359689
