MD 0561 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR A PART OF EAST-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0561
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0128 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Areas affected…a part of east-central TX
Concerning…Severe potential…Watch possible
Valid 281828Z – 282030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance…60 percent
SUMMARY…Redeveloping thunderstorms along the I-35 corridor in
central Texas may intensify as they spread northeastward into a part
of east Texas later this afternoon.
DISCUSSION…Regenerative thunderstorm development persists in parts
of central TX across the outflow from an MCS that decayed this
morning. Surface temperatures continue to warm into the upper 70s to
low 80s within cloud breaks south and east of the large-scale
outflow boundary arcing across east TX. This is yielding moderate
buoyancy amid upper 60s to low 70s surface dew points. With a
favorable deep-layer wind profile (0-6km shear near 50 kts) per GRK
VWP data, a couple supercells within an emerging cluster may
develop. Overall convective mode will likely remain nebulous for the
next few hours with uncertainty on whether a supercell can become
sustained and track along the remnant outflow boundary. Should this
occur, it would support a late afternoon tornado threat while the
region remains on the southwest periphery of 850-mb winds in excess
of 30 kts.
..Grams/Hart.. 04/28/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…SHV…HGX…FWD…EWX…
LAT…LON 31159754 31929699 32159648 32239594 32199559 32109524
31639497 31239505 31069525 30999557 30779608 30509638
30319709 30489746 31159754
