MD 0582 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 163… FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0582
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0654 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024
Areas affected…Central/Southern IA
Concerning…Tornado Watch 163…
Valid 302354Z – 010130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 163 continues.
SUMMARY…Scattered severe thunderstorms will spread across the
remainder of ww163 over the next several hours.
DISCUSSION…Strongly diffluent high-level flow is proving favorable
for ongoing convection immediately ahead of progressive short-wave
trough. Focused LLJ, currently over northern MO/central IA, will
translate downstream into IL/WI later this evening as the short wave
ejects into the upper MS Valley. While surface warm front will
gradually advance north in response to this feature, downstream
buoyancy is notably weaker, and most likely won’t recover
appreciably prior to short wave passage. Latest thinking is ongoing
supercells will progress across the remainder of ww163 and then
encounter a less favorable thermodynamic environment where weakening
updrafts are expected. Until then, severe risk continues, including
the threat of tornadoes.
..Darrow.. 04/30/2024
…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…
ATTN…WFO…DMX…EAX…FSD…OAX…
LAT…LON 42399712 42169243 40429244 40659714 42399712
