SPC MD 642

SPC MD 642


Mesoscale Discussion 0642
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0309 PM CDT Sun May 05 2024

Areas affected…South TX

Concerning…Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186…

Valid 052009Z – 052115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 186

SUMMARY…A couple of supercells embedded within a slow,
southeast-moving cluster will largely impact the southwest portion
of WW 186 through 6 PM CDT. Additional severe storm development will
be possible elsewhere, but appears to be trending towards lower
probabilities of occurrence.

DISCUSSION…A pair of deep convective updrafts with echo tops of
50-55k ft are slowly moving southeastward at around 15 kts. These
cells appear to have connected outflow and will likely continue
their slow progression over the next couple hours. The environment
ahead of them contains appreciable buoyancy with MLCAPE of 2000-2500
J/kg, supporting a potential increase in intensity through late
afternoon with a mix of large hail to around golf ball size and wind
gusts of 55-70 mph possible. With greater MLCIN over Deep South TX,
in conjunction with increasing mid-level warming in the wake of a
southern-stream low-amplitude shortwave impulse, the severe threat
should decrease during the early evening.

Farther north and northeast, convection has largely struggled to
intensify along residual outflows where the boundary layer has been
relatively cooler. 18Z HRRR guidance suggests this activity may not
greatly intensify, and the overall severe threat appears marginal.

..Grams.. 05/05/2024

…Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product…


LAT…LON 28709880 28129798 27699780 27349806 27239859 27259913
27919958 28249965 28429966 28709880

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