SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Southeast Sunday and the southern Florida Peninsula and eastern Carolinas Sunday evening/night, but no severe threat is expected. ... Discussion ... A seasonably strong midlevel low will move across the Tennessee Valley toward the Carolinas on Sunday. Despite surface dewpoints in the upper-30Fs and low-40Fs, weak instability will develop beneath this upper low given 500-millibar temperatures approaching -30C and modest diurnal heating. Forecast soundings support most unstable CAPE values approaching 500 J/kg even with the equilibrium level near 500 millibars. Showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms should develop within this environment during the afternoon. Additionally, a couple of thunderstorms will be possible Sunday evening/overnight across portions of the eastern Carolinas as large-scale ascent increases due to a combination of the approaching midlevel low and coastal frontogenesis/cyclogenesis occurs. Lastly, large-scale ascent will increase across the Florida Peninsula Sunday night as the midlevel low approaches. A few thunderstorms will be possible across far south Florida where low-level moisture is better than farther north. ..Marsh.. 11/01/2025
