SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Sat Oct 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The threat for organized severe storms currently appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place across much of central Canada into the north-central CONUS on Monday. A series of low-amplitude shortwaves will move through the southern portion of this trough from the northern Rockies/High Plains into the Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will move through parts of the south-central Plains into the Midwest and southern Great Lakes. In the wake of morning convection, modest low/midlevel moisture and some diurnal heating/destabilization will support isolated to widely scattered storm development along the frontal corridor during the afternoon and evening. A separate zone of thunderstorm development will be possible from parts of the lower/mid MS Valley into the OH Valley, in association with deeper moisture and a low-amplitude midlevel vorticity maximum that may emerge from the Gulf. In general, weak instability and only modest deep-layer flow/shear near the front are expected to limit organized-severe potential. One exception may be from parts of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle, where post-frontal easterly low-level flow will result in veering wind profiles, somewhat elongated hodographs, and some strong-storm potential. However, uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of low-level moisture and instability within this post-frontal regime. Another exception may be across the southern Great Lakes, where somewhat stronger deep-layer flow may overspread the front, but most guidance only suggests very weak destabilization across this area through late afternoon. ..Dean.. 10/04/2025
